We are seeing, I think, the outlines of what lies ahead in the medium term, at least. The European leaders are definitely not going to admit they made an extremely unwise choice back in 2021, in following the lead of the USA by refusing to back down on the issue of NATO membership to Ukraine.
Though a number of European leaders must long since have understood how disastrous their adherence to NATO policies was, they will only acknowledge their mistake posthumously, at best. The European countries have invested too much in their infantile narrative, which is that you cannot, may not, shall not negotiate with Putin, whose demands are a priori evil.
They have faithfully followed the US course of explaining the Ukraine conflict as one between Good and Evil. They have suppressed information to their own populations. They have more or less bankrupted their own treasuries to provide financial support and arms to Ukraine. They have failed to take issue regarding the disruption of gas supplies from Russia, which rendered their own industries uncompetitive. Now they are even considering following US orders to break off business ties with BRICS countries.
How much money does your country send to Ukraine every month? My country sends enormous sums, in addition to arms. I very much doubt that the Ukrainian people are seeing any of it. Zelensky and his gang are certainly getting richer by the day. So why aren’t the media loudly asking: “Just how is all of this taxpayer money helping Ukraine and the Ukrainian people?”
Meanwhile Russia has long since won the Ukraine war. At least militarily. A large portion of Ukraine’s population has fled. Much of the remaining male population has died.
Until recently, Russia did not seem to be in a hurry; the front line moved sluggishly. There is no indication, except statements from Western leaders, that Russia wished to conquer more than Donbas until quite recently. Indeed, one would think that Russia has more than enough territory. Occupying antagonistic populations over any period of time is very costly, regardless of who the occupant is.
Russia knows full well that it would not benefit from conquering territory that is adamantly anti-Russian unless… and here comes the crux of the matter … unless the goal were to somehow paralyse the Ukrainian Fascists who, funded by the West, are probably the dominant force in Ukraine, not in number but in terms of power. They have used the same methods to gain the upper hand as Fascists used in Germany and Spain in the late 1930s. Western news media have been silent about them since 2014, and since Ukraine is currently a totalitarian state, details are hard to come by. What is certain is that the Fascists insist, and have done so since the very beginning, on continuing this war at any cost.
After the recent western-aided “Spiderweb” attacks on several important military airfields deep inside Russia, the Russians appear to have decided to step up matters. Moreover, it is now also clear that Trump will make no progress in persuading Zelensky to engage in realistic negotiations (many analysts suspect that the Fascists control him and that he is no more than an expensive puppet), so Russia appears to have decided that there are no non-military options and that all of Ukraine will have to be occupied and forcibly demilitarised. Such, then, is the embarrassing result of the West’s long and very costly campaign against Russia.
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In the medium term, there will be no negotiated peace. Ukraine will be an occupied country. Zelensky and his thugs will form a government in exile, lavishly funded by Western countries. Just as the Iranian Shah Junior has been nurtured for decades, at the expense of and unbeknownst to the US taxpayer, Zelensky and his court in exile will be generously remunerated for many years to come. Why? Because he and his court will serve as the pretext for an Orwelllian “never-ending-war“, the aim of which is to perpetuate US dominance, or rather the dominance of the US dollar, the reserve currency.
We shall have a war between Europe and Russia allegedly aided, but in reality initiated, by the USA; in reality a war in which Europe will be a US proxy, though Trump doesn’t seem to know it yet. This will, to begin with, probably take the form of a nominal cease-fire punctuated by acts of sabotage and terrorism, military and economic support to Russian political dissidents, etc. In short the usual “regime change” paraphernalia at which the British and the US Americans excel. Meanwhile, Europe will be rearming at full speed.
The rapidly accelerating arms race will hopefully not culminate in outright nuclear warfare, but with such idiots at the helm, you never know. Arms contractors will be very happy, but we will see the pauperisation of growing swathes of our populations who will find comfort only in cheap digital entertainment. We have already seen incipient authoritarian tendencies in most of the so-called free Western countries, which are becoming ever more repressive.
Such is the prospect in the medium term, I think. How long the medium term will last is anybody’s guess. The long term is another matter, altogether. The silent majority cannot fail to notice that this whole business, the “defence” of Israel, and the battle between “Good” and “Evil” is all a whole big bag of lies. Even cheep digital entertainment and gaming may not be capable of turning us into zombies. We must hope that sooner or later we will be able to hold our leaders to account. It’s been done before.
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Post Scriptum: Jacques Baud, formerly a colonel and strategic and intelligence analyst, has written no less than three books about the Ukraine war, most recently “Covert Wars in Ukraine”. I believe he has correctly predicted what has happened all along and from the very start. In this 75 minute interview, he maintains that Europe and Ukraine will be forced to the negotiating table. Personally, I don’t see this happening, but his analysis – long though it is – is so knowledgeable that I believe it is well worth listening to. And who knows, maybe a negotiated settlement is possible, after all.